A Game of Thrones in Bihar: Who Will Seize Control of Patna?
The countdown begins! The fight for all 243 seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly is set to explode on November 6 and 11, 2025. Get ready for a political showdown that will redefine the state’s future.
Bihar’s Political Merry-Go-Round: A Tale of Shifting Alliances
Get ready for the next round of elections! The Bihar Legislative Assembly is set to conclude its tenure on 22 November 2025, but the real drama has been happening between the polls, starring one of India’s most unpredictable Chief Ministers.
Here’s the thrilling backstory to the upcoming elections:
The Post-2020 Drama: A Governor’s House Residency Program
The last assembly elections in October–November 2020 saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secure a victory, with Nitish Kumar once again taking the oath as Chief Minister. But the political stability was short-lived:
The 2022 U-Turn: On August 9, 2022, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) dramatically broke its alliance with the BJP. The very next day, he joined the rival Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of the RJD and Congress and was sworn in as Chief Minister again.
The 2024 Reverse-U-Turn: In a stunning repeat performance in January 2024, JD(U) abandoned the Mahagathbandhan. Nitish Kumar resigned as Chief Minister… only to immediately form a new government by re-allying with the BJP-led NDA and was sworn in as Chief Minister for a record time.
In Bihar, the only constant is change, and the political landscape has been thoroughly churned. With the term expiring in late 2025, the stage is now set for a decisive battle between these constantly shifting alliances!
The Political Landscape and Key Alliances: Bihar Legislative Election 2025
NDA (Ruling Alliance) — Stronger Shape, but Internal Tensions
- Final seat‑sharing: BJP and JD(U) will each contest 101 seats. LJP (Ram Vilas) gets 29 seats; HAM (Secular) and RLM allotted 6 seats each.
- Smaller allies: HAM has named its six candidates.
- Friction points:
• Some in JDU accuse internal leaders of “ticket-selling” and “hijacking” decisions.
• Union Minister Giriraj Singh warned against complacency and questioned concessions by BJP to allies.
• Some BJP insiders perceive this seat parity as a shift in power within NDA—less dominance for JDU. - Public messaging: BJP asserts the alliance is intact and “as strong as Pandavas.”
Mahagathbandhan / INDIA Bloc — Seat Politics & Leadership
- Seat-sharing still unsettled: RJD, Congress, and Left parties continue internal bargaining.
- Tensions emerging: Lalu Yadav prematurely distributed tickets; Tejashwi stepped in to enforce bloc discipline.
- CM face: Tejashwi Yadav continues to be projected as the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate.
- Strategic moves: INDIA bloc has fielded academically qualified/non‑traditional candidates (e.g. Divya Gautam).
Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) — Disruptor or Dark Horse?
Prashant Kishor has declined to contest an assembly seat, focusing on strengthening the party’s organization.
- He has ruled out alliances with both LJP (Ram Vilas) and the INDIA bloc, insisting JSP contests alone.
- The party continues to push the narrative of “development over caste” and is testing appetite for non‑traditional candidates.
politics in the state is once again boiling down to a familiar yet evolving mix of caste arithmetic, governance narratives, and a growing youth rebellion over jobs and migration. From the aftershocks of the 2023 Bihar Caste Survey to the tug-of-war over Tejashwi Yadav’s job guarantees, this election promises to be anything but ordinary.
Let’s break down the dominant electoral issues that will shape the outcome in this politically crucial state.
The Dominant Electoral Issues
Caste and Social Engineering: Bihar’s Political DNA
Caste remains the foundational force of Bihar’s politics, and no serious campaign strategy can afford to ignore it. Parties are no longer merely playing to their base — they are now engineering social coalitions to outmaneuver their rivals in this zero-sum game.
The Caste Census Factor: Numbers That Matter
The much-awaited 2023 Bihar Caste Survey laid bare a reality that was always felt but never officially acknowledged: the overwhelming presence of EBCs (36%) and OBCs (27%), making them the majority electorate in the state.
This data has become the new political currency:
- The RJD-led alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is pushing for expanded reservations, aligning with the national debate on caste-based equity.
- Parties are now distributing tickets not just on winnability, but on caste representation ratios. Expect to see a significant increase in EBC and OBC candidates across all major parties.
- Tejashwi Yadav has already signaled a pivot to a broader “Bahujan” appeal, beyond the RJD’s traditional Muslim-Yadav base.
- The NDA, particularly the BJP, is focusing on non-Yadav OBCs and non-dominant EBCs, groups that feel marginalized by RJD’s earlier caste focus.
The survey has added data-driven urgency to a deeply emotional and historic issue — and every party wants to claim credit for it.
Social Coalitions: Old Blocks, New Alignments
RJD: M-Y Plus?
The RJD’s core Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base remains intact, but that alone won’t suffice. Tejashwi is eyeing Dalits, EBCs, and even Upper Caste discontents, positioning himself as a progressive face of social justice with modern aspirations.
JD(U): EBCs and Women — The Nitish Core
Despite his shifting alliances, Nitish Kumar continues to enjoy deep loyalty among EBCs and women voters, thanks to his decade-long focus on social schemes like bicycle distribution, girl education incentives, and liquor prohibition.
But the question remains: Has his “Sushasan Babu” aura faded, or can he still leverage this social base for one last fight?
BJP: Upper Castes and New OBC Outreach
The BJP is banking on its Upper Caste stronghold, while simultaneously wooing non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs, especially through its development narrative and Hindutva plank. With Nitish in the NDA fold again, the BJP can ride on a larger coalition, but must also manage internal caste friction.
Youth, Employment & Migration: The Anti-Incumbency Volcano
The real wildcard in 2025 isn’t caste — it’s the youth. Bihar has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in India, leading to massive out-migration to states like Delhi, Maharashtra, and Punjab for low-paying, often exploitative work.
The Unemployment Crisis
This is not just a statistic — it’s a living, breathing grievance on the streets of Patna, Gaya, and Arrah. The frustration among the educated but jobless youth is palpable, and it threatens to upend traditional vote banks.
The Job Promise War: RJD vs NDA
- Tejashwi Yadav, during his stint as Deputy CM, made bold promises, including the recruitment of over 3 lakh government jobs, which resonated strongly with unemployed youth.
- For 2025, the RJD is going all-in with its “Har Ghar Naukri Guarantee” — a promise of one job per household.
- The NDA, on the other hand, counters this with its track record of infrastructure growth, digital skilling programs, and youth startup schemes — but whether that can match the emotional pull of government job promises remains to be seen.
Governance & Anti-Incumbency: Nitish’s Credibility Test
Nitish Kumar: “Paltu Ram” or “Sushasan Babu”?
Nitish’s frequent political U-turns — from NDA to Mahagathbandhan and back — have earned him the moniker “Paltu Ram”. Critics argue that these flip-flops have eroded trust, particularly among urban and first-time voters.
Yet, others — especially rural women and EBCs — continue to see him as the architect of “good governance”. Whether that image survives this election will depend on how effectively he can distance himself from the political baggage of past alliances.
Law & Order and Corruption
The opposition is hammering the NDA over a perceived breakdown in law and order, as well as rising corruption in local governance and recruitment scams. In response, the ruling alliance points to their track record on policing reforms and digitization efforts in administration.
Still, in a state where law and order narratives often swing elections, even a few high-profile incidents could sway public opinion.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble for All Sides
The 2025 Bihar Assembly Election is not just a contest of alliances — it’s a referendum on jobs, justice, governance, and generational change. Caste will continue to matter, but it must now compete with aspirations, anxieties, and anger, especially among the youth.
With new social equations, a charged electorate, and deep anti-incumbency undercurrents, Bihar may once again set the tone for India’s evolving democracy.